At first blush, Marlon Byrd's two-year, $16 million contract with the Phillies (the deal also includes an option for a third year) is a stunner. An eight-figure deal for a 36-year-old outfielder, from a National League team that can't use him as a designated hitter, after he hit a seemingly flukish career-high 24 home runs in 2013?

Yes, it could very easily turn into a disaster, but for $8 million a year over two years, it's not nearly as big a risk as it may appear. This year was only the fourth time in Byrd's career that he got 500 plate appearances in a season — the others were his rookie year with the Phillies, a 20-homer season with the Texas Rangers in 2009, and a 12-homer season with the Chicago Cubs in 2010. In all four of those seasons, Byrd had an OPS+ above 100, meaning that he delivered better than league average production when afforded playing time.

The Phillies needed a right-handed bat, and signing Byrd allowed them to do that without giving up assets from a limited farm system in a trade. That, as always, is a reason that teams pay a premium for free agents. Jay Bruce is going to make $10 million for the Cincinnati Reds in 2014, but Bruce is still in his team-control years — on the open market, he would be worth more, as is indicated by his $13 million option for 2017, an option that, with current salary trends, looks like it will be a bargain.

A more apt comparison is someone like Hunter Pence, who decided not to test free agency and instead signed a five-year, $90 million extension with the San Francisco Giants in September. Pence hit a career-high 27 home runs this year, and has a better track record than Byrd, with six straight seasons of 20-plus homers. Pence also turns 31 in April, so that kind of production can be expected to continue for the better part of his new deal.

Those are the expectations for a player on a $15 million-a-year deal. Byrd, at $8 million a year, should — hang on for the big surprise — have less of a burden of expectations. If he contributes 10-15 homers a year, and maintains an OPS in the .750 range (his career figure is .761, and the National League average in 2013 was .703), then Byrd's signing will be a worthwhile expenditure for the Phillies.

If Byrd maintains his 2013 levels of production, he'll be a steal, but the Phillies would be nuts to have signed him with that kind of projection in mind. The $8 million annual salary — lower than six players currently under contract in Philadelphia — suggests that what Ruben Amaro and his staff have in mind is something more measured. Going the bargain basement route with Delmon Young didn't work in 2013.


ROX NOT DEALING


Sorry GMs: The Colorado Rockies say they won't be trading stars Troy Tulowitizi, Carlos Gonzalez and Michael Cuddyer, CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman reports.

The 29-year-old Tulowitizki in particular had been the subject of trade rumors, with the St. Louis Cardinals said to be among the most interested teams.

When healthy, the three-time All-Star shortstop is one of the game's top players. His career slash line is .295/.367/.509 and he averages 29 homers per 162 games. He is under contract through the 2020 season, with a club option for 2021.

Gonzalez, 28, was an All-Star in 2013, when he hit .302/.367/.591 with 26 home runs. The three-time Gold Glove-winning outfielder is under contract through 2017.

Cuddyer, who will be 35 in March, just finished the second season of a four-year contract with the Rockies. He led the NL in hitting at .331 and hit 20 homers and 31 doubles.

Colorado has talked with a few teams about trading CF Dexter Fowler, Heyman reports.


CARDS EYEING LOWRIE


The National League champion Cardinals, searching for a new shortstop after Pete Kozma's subpar year, are interested in Jed Lowrie of the Oakland A's, GammonsDaily.com reports.

Given that the free-agent market for shortstops is pretty sparse, St. Louis is looking to upgrade through a trade. Among the names the team has been linked to in addidtion to Lowrie: Troy Tulowitizk, iJurickson Profar, Elvis Andrus and Erick Aybar.

Lowrie, 29, hit .290/.344/.446 with 15 home runs and 45 doubles for the AL West champion A's.

"The Athletics could trade Lowrie and send Addison Russell to the majors this season," Peter Gammons writes in the report. "Russell has drawn comps to Barry Larkin, and one NL scout says 'he has uncanny skills to drive the ball and drive it hard in and out of the park in the alleys.' "

Addison, who turns 20 in January, was the A's first-round pick in 2012. He hit .269/.369/.495 with 17 home runs in 110 minor-league games in 2013, mostly at high Class A Stockton.


RANGERS ADD MOLINA TO STAFF


The Texas Rangers have completed their coaching staff by hiring Bengie Molina as first base coach and catching instructor.

Molina's hiring was announced Tuesday, when the Rangers also said Triple-A manager Bobby Jones will be the assistant hitting coach. The team had previously said Jones would be on manager Ron Washington's major league staff next season.

Molina finished his 13-season playing career in 2010, when he was acquired from San Francisco in a midseason trade and played in the Rangers' first World Series. His final major league game was as Texas' catcher in the deciding Game 5 of the World Series won by the Giants.

Jones has been in the Rangers organization for 26 seasons. This will be his third stint on the major league staff.

Contributors: Jesse Spector, Justin McGuire, The Associated Press