Below we will be explaining a simple method that you can use to price up a match yourself. It should be remembered that pricing up a match is all down to individual preference. Some people put more emphasis on the form of the last six games than they do on the previous 38 matches. Pricing up a football match takes a little time to learn. With each match you need to decide how far you’re going to go back, which games (or kinds of games) you think might deserve extra or less emphasis and so on. However, with continued practice you will find that putting in a couple of hours work a week can pay off handsomely.

HOW TO COMPILE YOUR OWN ODDS

Fulham 100/46.66 = 2.14

Draw 100/33.33 = 3.03

Aston Villa 100/20.00 = 5.00

We have now priced up our match and we have; •    Fulham at 2.14 •    Draw at 3.03 •    Aston Villa at 5.00 If we then take a look at the odds from a well known bookmaker we see they have priced the game up as follows;Match Odds: Fulham 2.20 Draw 3.30 Aston Villa 3.40 

Fulham are 2.20 (45.45%) and we believe they should be 2.14 (46.72%) We may now consider betting on them as we believe the Cottagers have more chance of beating the Villains than the bookmakers do with a +1.27% difference between us. Aston Villa are priced at 3.40 (29.41%) and we have them as a 5.00 (20.00%) chance  We would probably not look to back Aston Villa as we think they stand -9.41% less chance of winning than the bookmakers have them. The draw is priced at 3.30 (30.30%) and we believe it only offers a 3.00 (33.33%) chance  We may consider the draw as we believe there is +3.03% more chance of this happening.  Now the question here is how much value do we require? Personally, I would not bet on a team unless we find at least 5% value and would not bet on the draw unless there is at least 1% value.

 

OTHER METHODS TO CONSIDER

Now the above is only one method of pricing up a match.

The following is a list of other suggestions you could employ. You may also wish to mix and match.

 For long term you can look at the last 20 home and away matches for each team.    Short term you may look at the last 10 home and away matches for each team How a team has played against similar opposition.   Check the prices available from the corresponding fixture last season.  

You can then assess if either of the teams have improved or deteriorated since the last time they met and price up the match from there. The main thing is to find a method that suits you and which you have complete confidence in and unfortunately that will take some time to master. 

WORD OF WARNING

If you price up a match and you find that you are receiving excellent value and it seems too good to be true then you need to check the prices and the team news. The manager may be resting players or important stars may be missing though injury.  Or, you could have made a simple mistake in your calculations. Always double-check your figures, facts and team news before placing what you consider to be a value bet.