That has left Americans unsure of Israel’s future. About 38 percent of those surveyed think Israel should become a mixed state, and 6 percent think it should cease to exist altogether as an independent country. Though 42 percent of those polled continue to believe Israel should remain an independent Jewish state, just one third (34 percent) of respondents think the country will remain a Jewish state 50 years from now. About a quarter (23 percent) say it will likely evolve into a mixed state, and 18 percent think Israel will no longer exist as an independent state in 50 years.

Public opinion has swayed against U.S. support of the creation of a Palestinian state, though, with 44 percent opposed to the idea, while 39 percent say the U.S. should favor its creation. The recent spate of suicide bombings also has left nearly two-thirds of Americans (64 percent) in doubt over Palestinian Authority chairman Yasir Arafat’s ability to control extremist Palestinian groups. Nearly half of those polled (49 percent) blame the Palestinians for the recent violence, with only 12 percent holding the Israelis responsible, and nearly a quarter assigning equal blame to both sides (23 percent). And 70 percent of Americans now see Arafat as an obstacle to peace (up from an already sizable 63 percent in December). The number who see Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon as an obstacle to peace has also increased to 40 percent–up 5 percent from December.

And while American feelings of solidarity with Israel aren’t quite as strong as they were immediately after the Sept. 11 attacks, a clear majority (53 percent) continue to disagree that the U.S. should reduce ties to Israel “in order to lessen acts of terrorism against us” (versus 31 percent who agree).

Fear that the Israeli-Palestinian dispute will lead to a wider war in the Middle East remains high; nearly 80 percent of those polled think it is somewhat (40 percent) or very likely (37 percent) that the situation will lead to a wider war. Nonetheless, only a third of Americans would support sending U.S. troops to the region now to monitor the situation or keep the peace, though a majority (71 percent) would support increasing diplomatic efforts to broker a peace settlement.

CATHOLIC CONTROVERSY

When it comes to making peace with priests who sexually abuse young people, Americans are a lot less forgiving. In the aftermath of the recent scandals, Americans have become increasingly critical of the church in its handling of the issue. Nearly three-quarters of all of those polled (74 percent) say the church is too lenient in its treatment of sex-offender priests, up from 61 percent who expressed the same opinion in a 1993 NEWSWEEK poll.

More than three-quarters (76 percent) of all Americans and two-thirds of Catholics say priests who sexually abuse young people pose a serious problem for the church. Though the number may seem high, it is nearly identical to the percentage of U.S. Catholics polled by NEWSWEEK in 1993 who also identified sex abuse by priest as a serious problem at that time–well before the current scandals.

Over two-thirds (69 percent) of Catholics now agree that it would be a good thing if married men were allowed to become priests, slightly less than in 1993 when 71 percent agreed. Catholic opinion is evenly divided on whether allowing priests to marry would reduce the problem of sex abuse by priests: 46 percent think it would make a difference, while another 46 percent think it would not. But few Catholics see a major downside to changing Church policy to allow priests to marry. Sixty-nine percent think the change would significantly increase the number of priests, outweighing any negative effect from a priest’s wife and family taking his time and attention away from parishioners.

For the NEWSWEEK poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates conducted telephone interviews with 1,001 adults on March 21-22, 2002. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent.